Thursday, 10 August 2017

How Fast are our Consumption and Generation Patterns Changing?


Oh dear, another set of graphs!

The good news is I only want to look at the right hand side one - you can see how since 2013, coal has plummeted, and gas has more modestly increased. Nuclear has stayed more or less constant, solar and wind have increased but are still a very small part of the total.
Here's another perspective - the modest decline in overall demand is accentuated in total fossil consumption - i.e. coal and gas together have declined faster than consumption, because renewables, nuclear and interconnectors have all increased.

For the green renewable line to go up further and faster we will need much more demand side response - so get time-shifting and tell your friends!

Monday, 7 August 2017

Solar Share of Generation in Europe is Plateauing


The share of electricity generation in countries known for their keen pursuit of it in the past, notably Germany, has plateaued.

In Germany's case, at 6% of generation. Sunny Greece and Italy are marginally better at around 8%.
Germany has a moratorium on nuclear power, but this has not caused an increase in solar electricity generation.

There are technical as well as political reasons for this.

It gets progressively harder to increase solar's share of generation, particularly in countries where the supply and demand are substantially out of sync with each other, as is the case in Northern Europe.

The answer? More time-shifting of domestic demand of course!


Thursday, 3 August 2017

Hi , I'm Tom Langdon-Davies from a farm near Exeter in sunny Devon, South West England. I have worked all over the world for energy companies, renewable and conventional. Now it's time for me to see what I can do to raise awareness of the easy things we can do to make our energy more sustainable. Thanks for reading. Please help me by commenting!


After a brief spell seismic surveying around Europe and Africa, I ran the Natural Energy Centre in London - that was back in 1977, and we did it all. Wind, solar, heat pumps, biomass. After that I did a stint at the Electricity Council in Millbank , encouraging night-time battery charging, back when the UK electricity supply industry was still nationalised.
We moved to Devon in 1984, installed solar PV, wood-burning stoves, and I got a grant to put in a biomass supply system at Occombe Farm in Torbay.
Devon and Cornwall are now blessed with more wind and solar electricity than they can use - unless we start to seriously shift when we use it, from times of peak demand to times of trough demand, and also into times when the sun is shining and the wind is blowing.
Please take a look at the blogs I have written over the last two years - and comment on them or publicise them. Let me know if I can do the same for you!
Thanks

Wednesday, 2 August 2017

Regen SW Remind us of Falling Peak UK Electricity Demand


As I pointed out several months ago, and Regen SW remind us, peak winter electricity demand in UK is falling.


However, the shape of the demand curve remains much the same - in 2016/17 the winter peak at around 5:30 PM was still 7GW higher than the daytime plateau - domestic DSR is still under 10% of the way up the adoption curve.
This is what can make a big difference if we continue to engage with each other. Let's raise the awareness of the issue beyond the 3 million or so consumers who seem to be doing something about it.

The crunch will come as electric vehicles start to push demand back up again - then we will need to flatten the curve to avoid another 2 or 3 large nuclear power stations at a cost of over £50 billion.

Tuesday, 25 July 2017

Gandhi - "everything you do is absolutely insignificant, but it is very important you do it."


It's time for a little bit of philosophy!
We often think "wouldn't it be nice if...." and then say something that we would like to happen, that would happen if many people took action, but we feel powerless to cause or bring about.
Domestic Demand Side response was one of these for me.
Until a couple of years ago, I did not believe it was possible to get people to shift the times at which they use appliances to reduce UK peak electricity demand.

But it is now starting to happen. The people with PV systems or Economy Seven tariffs are not only doing it, they are increasingly realising the collective benefits of doing so, and the conversation has changed. The word is spreading.

Gandhi went further than this in what he said.

Not only are you only one of thirty million electricity consuming households, but everything you do is ultimately and inherently insignificant - paradoxically this empowers us to take action just because it's the right thing to do,without any expectation of outcome. In my experience, the results can be unpredictable, exciting, and transformative.

Go on, give it a try!

Wednesday, 19 July 2017

How Far up the Adoption Curve for Domestic DSR are we?

There are around 30 million electricity consumers in UK and as many of them as possible need to be shifting their time-of-use away from peaks if we are to avoid an extremely costly upgrade of the distribution system , as well as a ramped-up rollout of nuclear at £8,000/kW and rising.
That's the challenge. But how many are already doing so?

There are in UK around

  • 800,000 solar PV installation owners or tenants, most of whom take advantage of "free" electricity when the sun shines
  • 1.7 million storage heating installations, on economy 7 tariffs, using night-time electricity.
  • 0.1 million heat pumps, many of which are on smart connections
  • A few hundred thousand people like you and I who know that DSR is a good idea

So around 10% of domestic users, 3 million, have some awareness of the value of time-shifting, and most are at least taking some action where it is to their financial benefit.



So we are  at the end of the early adoption phase for awareness - the 10% of innovators and early adopters needed to get a technology off the ground.

Of course awareness and appropriate action are not the same thing, but awareness is a necessary precursor to action. 

Let's keep pumping the message out!

I am, are you?

Tuesday, 11 July 2017

Is Solar in UK Like Solar in California?


On 3rd May, California had a capacity crisis. Their hydro power reserve had run out of water because of the drought, there was little wind, and the peak demand even in air-conditioned California was after dark. Demand side response came to the rescue thanks largely to Enernoc, and 800 MW was lopped off the  34 GW or so of peak demand, preventing large-scale outages. (The green net demand curve is net of solar PV and of DSR)
But look at how much of the near-peak demand is met by solar.
In UK , in winter, this would not happen. Our peak demand occurs several hours after the watery winter sun has already set. 
All the more reason, then, to be concerned about getting as much time-shifting as possible out of the winter peak. The alternatives to this are:
  • Power outages
  • More expensive nuclear electricity
  • More carbon emitting gas-fired electricity
  • Expensive and polluting storage
  • The energy trilemma writ large - unaffordable, unsustainable, unreliable electricity

So - be an early adopter, get ahead of the game, and prepare for next winter by planning to shift all water heating appliances out of the 3-8pm peak! Hundreds of thousands already time-shift, do you?